SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192012
VAZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-NCZ000-192215-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1297
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0312 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN KY THROUGH MIDDLE AND ERN TN
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 511...
VALID 192012Z - 192215Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 511 CONTINUES.
THREAT FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL
PERSIST NEXT FEW HOURS.
PRONOUNCED VORTICITY MAXIMUM WAS LOCATED OVER EXTREME SE IND WITH
ASSOCIATED TRAILING CONVERGENCE BANDS EXTENDING SWD THROUGH CNTRL KY
AND NRN MIDDLE TN. INSTABILITY GRADUALLY INCREASES TO 2000 J/KG
MLCAPE WITH SWD EXTENT TOWARD MIDDLE TN WHERE STRONGER DIABATIC
WARMING HAS OCCURRED. INITIAL STORMS THAT DEVELOPED OVER MIDDLE TN
WEAKENED AS THEY CROSSED INTO THE COOLER AIR EAST OF THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY IN ERN TN. HOWEVER...OTHER STORMS ARE TRYING TO FORM
FARTHER WEST ALONG CONVERGENCE BANDS ACROSS S-CNTRL KY INTO NRN
MIDDLE TN. THIS ACTIVITY MIGHT HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF BECOMING
SEVERE SINCE THE ATMOSPHERE HAS HAD MORE TIME TO DESTABILIZE. ONCE
THE STORMS ROOT IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...THEY WILL LIKELY BECOME
SUPERCELLULAR WITH A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL GIVEN 40-50 KT DEEP SHEAR.
A RESERVOIR OF 200-300 M2/S2 EFFECTIVE STORM RELATIVE HELICITY
EXISTS ALONG AND EAST OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF
TN AND KY. THE SURFACE LAYER IS STILL SOMEWHAT COOL AND STABLE EAST
OF THIS BOUNDARY...BUT IS GRADUALLY WARMING WITH TIME. THEREFORE...A
WINDOW STILL EXISTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING FOR SUPERCELLS THAT
DEVELOP TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TORNADOES AS THEY MOVE EWD AND INTERACT
WITH THE BOUNDARY.
..DIAL.. 06/19/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...
LAT...LON 36938584 36938379 36288344 35228417 35108482 35208553
35968700 36938584
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