SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052032
IAZ000-MNZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-052200-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1511
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0332 PM CDT TUE JUL 05 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SE SD...WRN-CNTRL IA...FAR NE NEB
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 052032Z - 052200Z
AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT MAY PERSIST AS CELLS MOVE AND DEVELOP SWD
ACROSS WRN IA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HAIL AND ISOLATED SEVERE WIND
GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER CELLS AND LINE-SEGMENTS. WW
ISSUANCE CAN NOT BE RULED OUT BUT THE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN
MARGINALLY SEVERE LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING ACROSS NRN IA ALONG AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SURGING TO THE SOUTH. AHEAD OF THE STORMS...A VERY
MOIST AIR MASS IS IN PLACE WITH SFC DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 F ACROSS MUCH
OF WRN AND NRN IA. MLCAPE VALUES ACROSS WRN IA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE
IN THE 2000 TO 2500 J/KG RANGE WHICH ALONG WITH LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH A VORTICITY MAX OVER NCNTRL IA SHOULD ENABLE THE
STORMS TO PERSIST FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. IN ADDITION...THE DES
MOINES WSR-88D VWP SHOWS 40 TO 45 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGESTING
THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT AS THE
CELLS MOVE SWD ACROSS WRN IA. HOWEVER...THE LATEST SHORT-TERM MODEL
FORECASTS SUGGESTS THE GREATEST CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL EXIST TO
SOUTH OF THE MCD AREA WHERE THE COMBINATION OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MAXIMIZED.
..BROYLES.. 07/05/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...
LAT...LON 43299475 43699545 43709627 43399722 42779741 42279667
41649567 41239486 41289418 41599364 42409348 43299475
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