SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052042
AZZ000-052145-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1512
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0342 PM CDT TUE JUL 05 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL...SERN AND E-CNTRL AZ
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 052042Z - 052145Z
STRONG TO SVR TSTMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE LOWER DESERTS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH A PRIMARY THREAT OF DMGG WINDS. TRENDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE ISSUANCE OF A WW.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DENOTES MULTIPLE WEAK MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
CIRCULATIONS ROTATING AROUND THE WRN PERIPHERY OF A SRN CO UPPER
ANTICYCLONE. ONE SUCH FEATURE WAS LOCATED OVER SERN AZ...AND MAY
HAVE RECENTLY AIDED IN CONVECTIVE INITIATION NEAR OLS. ADDITIONAL
TCU/CB DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN NOTED RECENTLY IN VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGES OVER THE CHIRICAHUA MTNS IN FAR SERN AZ. ANOTHER LARGER
CLUSTER OF TSTMS CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AND SLOWLY SHIFT EWD NEAR
THE WHITE MTNS AND MOGOLLON RIM IN E-CNTRL AZ. A TREND FOR
INCREASING AREAL COVERAGE OF TSTMS...WITH LOCALIZED STRONG-SVR
DOWNBURST WINDS POSSIBLE...IS ANTICIPATED THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON.
12Z RAOBS FROM PHX/TUS ALONG WITH MORE RECENT KIWA/KTUS VAD WIND
DATA INDICATE A DEEP LAYER OF ELY FLOW /BTWN 15-20 KTS/ IS PRESENT
ABOVE 1-2 KM AGL...WHICH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR AIDING IN COLD POOL
PROPAGATION TOWARDS THE LOWER DESERTS LATER TODAY. AN ANOMALOUSLY
MOIST AIR MASS /1.6-1.9 INCH PWAT/ OVER CNTRL AZ HAS CONTRIBUTED TO
MLCAPE VALUES BTWN 1500-2000 J/KG...AND WITH SUFFICIENT LIFT ALONG
THE LEADING EDGE OF ANY COLD POOLS MAY FOSTER THE DEVELOPMENT OF NEW
TSTMS OVER THE DESERT FLOOR. EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES NEAR 20 KTS WILL
LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN PULSE TO LOOSELY ORGANIZED SMALL
MULTICELL CLUSTERS...WITH A PRIMARY THREAT OF DMGG DOWNBURST WINDS
VIA PRECIPITATION LOADING.
..ROGERS.. 07/05/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...
LAT...LON 31311102 31941302 32451328 33671323 34281315 34561288
34621164 34401013 33980932 33180911 31340913 31311102
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