SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172312
MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-180015-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1643
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0612 PM CDT SUN JUL 17 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...UPSTATE NY...NRN NEW ENGLAND
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 172312Z - 180015Z
THREAT OF DMGG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND PORTIONS
OF NEW ENGLAND WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY
SOON.
A STRONG UPPER IMPULSE THAT LED TO TORNADOES ACROSS ND YESTERDAY HAS
QUICKLY PROGRESSED AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER HIGH...AND HAS
BECOME ORGANIZED ONCE AGAIN ACROSS ERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. THIS
LEADING WAVE HAS INFLUENCED THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BOWING SEGMENT
MOVING AT 50 KTS THAT WILL PROGRESS INTO UPSTATE NY/NRN NEW ENGLAND
JUST AROUND 00Z. CYWA NEAR THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER GUSTED TO 65
KTS AROUND 22Z. GIVEN STRONG WNWLY FLOW...STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES HAVE ADVECTED ESEWD...AND WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
ORGANIZATION DESPITE DIURNAL COOLING. DMGG WINDS WILL LIKELY REACH
THE SURFACE...AS THE DEVELOPING INVERSION REMAINS SHALLOW.
..HURLBUT.. 07/17/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...GYX...BTV...BUF...
LAT...LON 45147049 44467114 44147249 44137461 44367579 44647557
44957496 45027152 45347085 45147049
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