SWODY1
SPC AC 050600
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT MON SEP 05 2011
VALID 051200Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE GULF COAST/SOUTHEAST
STATES...
...GULF COAST/SOUTHEAST STATES...
CURRENT TROPICAL DEPRESSION LEE /REFERENCE NHC FORECASTS FOR THE
LATEST INFORMATION/ IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD PROGRESSIVE /ESPECIALLY LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT/
AS IT UNDERGOES AN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN
ENHANCED SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD MAY ACTUALLY STRENGTHEN TO A
DEGREE AS IT BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL/INTERACTS WITH THE EASTERN CONUS
LONGWAVE TROUGH...WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF 50+ KT WINDS WITHIN THE
LOWEST 1-2 KM /EG 850 MB/ TRANSLATING EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF AL AND THE FL PANHANDLE INTO GA...AND PERHAPS SC LATER
TONIGHT.
ASIDE FROM A DEGREE OF SPREAD REGARDING THE EXACT TIMING/PLACEMENT
AND UNCERTAIN ACCELERATION OF LEE REMNANTS...THE SPECIFIC DEGREE OF
DESTABILIZATION INLAND REMAINS A KEY UNCERTAINTY. BUT EVEN MODEST
DESTABILIZATION /ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS/ SHOULD BOOST
TORNADO POTENTIAL WITHIN A HEIGHTENED SHEAR/SRH AND MOISTURE-RICH
ENVIRONMENT. ADDITIONALLY...WITH DRY AIR BECOMING A BIT MORE
PREVALENT ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF LEE EARLY IN THE
OVERNIGHT...IT APPEARS THAT A MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT /PER LATEST
GUIDANCE/ COULD EMERGE/SPREAD EAST-NORTHEASTWARD BY AFTERNOON...OR
MORE CERTAINLY THE EVENING. THIS COULD BE A FACTOR FOR A MORE
CONSEQUENTIAL DESTABILIZATION ESPECIALLY IF IT INDEED BEGINS TO
OVERSPREAD TO THE LEE-REMNANT EASTERLY ENVELOPE MOIST AXIS PRE-DARK.
WHILE THE MAIN TORNADO THREAT WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR
TO THE IMMEDIATE EAST OF REMNANT LEE...AN INTERACTION WILL CONTINUE
TO OCCUR WITH THE SOUTHWARD-SAGGING SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTED
FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF AL/MS TO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. THIS FRONTAL ZONE WILL SERVE AS THE NORTHWARD
DEMARCATION OF TORNADO POTENTIAL...BUT COULD BECOME A QUASI-FOCUS
FOR TORNADO POTENTIAL /ASIDE FROM THE BROAD WARM SECTOR/ SHOULD
SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION OCCUR ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE MORE
PERSISTENT/CONCENTRATED RAIN-COOLED AIR.
OVERALL...THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE
OF TORNADOES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
AL/FL PANHANDLE/GA.
...MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST STATES/NEW ENGLAND...
PRIMARY LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT/STRONGEST VERTICAL SHEAR WILL
LAG /TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST/ THE SURFACE FRONT AS IT GRADUALLY SHIFTS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS/TOWARD THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH
TONIGHT. GIVEN THIS ANA-TYPE LARGE SCALE SCENARIO...AND ESPECIALLY
WITH ONGOING CONVECTION/PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER...CONSEQUENTIAL
DESTABILIZATION SEEMS UNLIKELY LATER TODAY. WHILE THE PATTERN
APPEARS MOST CONDUCIVE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...POTENTIAL WILL
EXIST FOR A FEW POCKETS OF MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION
NEAR THE EFFECTIVE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...AND A FEW STRONGER/PERHAPS
SEVERE STORMS COULD YIELD GUSTY WINDS/SMALL HAIL.
..GUYER/HURLBUT.. 09/05/2011
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