SWODY2
SPC AC 050549
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1249 AM CDT MON SEP 05 2011
VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN GA AND THE
CAROLINAS...
...CAROLINAS/ERN GULF COAST STATES...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS FORECASTING THE REMNANTS OF THE
TROPICAL SYSTEM LEE TO MOVE NEWD INTO NRN AL ON TUESDAY. TO THE EAST
OF THE ASSOCIATED UPPER-LEVEL LOW...A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL BE IN
PLACE WITH MODEL FORECASTS SHOWING AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY
TUESDAY FROM FLORIDA NWD INTO GA AND THE CAROLINAS. NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO BE ONGOING TUESDAY MORNING ALONG THE
INSTABILITY AXIS WHICH SHOULD ALSO BE CO-LOCATED WITH A PRONOUNCED
LOW-LEVEL JET. FORECAST SOUNDINGS TUESDAY AROUND MIDDAY ALONG THE
AXIS OF THE JET SHOW STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES WITH 0-1 KM
SHEAR VALUES IN THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE WITH SOME DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATING STORMS AND
A TORNADO THREAT SHOULD EXIST AS STORMS DEVELOP AND EXPAND IN
COVERAGE TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
CONCERNING THE LOCATION OF THE GREATEST TORNADO THREAT...THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS VARY SUBSTANTIALLY ON THE POSITION OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE TAKEN A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE
WRN MOST ECMWF...PLACING THE SLIGHT RISK AREA FROM ERN GA NWD INTO
THE WRN AND CNTRL CAROLINAS. A FEW TORNADOES MAY OCCUR WITH CELLS
THAT REMAIN DISCRETE AND MOVE INTO AREAS THAT HAVE SUFFICIENTLY
HEATED UP. A WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY ALSO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY IF
SEVERAL LINE-SEGMENTS CAN BECOME SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT MAY ALSO EXIST
FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS SRN GA AND NRN FL BUT SHEAR PROFILES ARE
FORECAST TO BE WEAKER SUGGESTING ANY THREAT SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED
THERE.
..BROYLES.. 09/05/2011
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment