SWODY1
SPC AC 070558
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1258 AM CDT WED SEP 07 2011
VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES/DELMARVA VICINITY...
...SYNOPSIS...
INCREASINGLY BLOCKY LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL EVOLVE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...AS AN EASTERN STATES CYCLONE /REMOVED FROM THE STRONGER
HIGH-LATITUDE WESTERLIES/ PIVOTS SLOWLY NORTHWARD ACROSS THE TN/OH
VALLEYS. THE PRIMARY SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE
RELEGATED TO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES/DELMARVA VICINITY...WITH TSTMS
ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS FL /ALONG AND SOUTH OF A STALLED FRONT/ AND
PORTIONS OF THE WEST INCLUDING THE FOUR CORNERS AREA MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON.
...MID-ATLANTIC STATES/DELMARVA...
THE EASTERN CONUS CYCLONE/LEE REMNANTS WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE
BAROCLINIC/EXHIBIT CONSIDERABLY MORE MID-LATITUDE CHARACTERISTICS AS
THE CLOSED/SEMI-STACKED CYCLONE SLOWLY SHIFTS NORTHWARD OVER THE
TN/OH RIVER VALLEYS. IN A SYSTEM-RELATIVE SENSE...OVERALL CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TREND LESS FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES
TODAY. NONETHELESS...THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST TODAY FOR A TORNADO OR
TWO AND/OR WIND DAMAGE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DELMARVA AND PERHAPS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF PA/NJ.
WITH THE REGION ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF DEEP/CYCLONIC SOUTHERLY LOW
TO MID-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW...A MOIST/HIGH PW AIRMASS AS GENERALLY
CHARACTERIZED BY LOWER 70S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL ACCOMPANY A
NORTHWARD-SHIFTING WARM FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. WITH THE AIRMASS
EXPECTED TO DIURNALLY DESTABILIZE TO THE EAST OF THE COLD FRONT AND
ESPECIALLY ALONG COASTAL AREAS BY THIS AFTERNOON...A RELATIVELY
FAVORABLE NORTH-SOUTH CORRIDOR OF DEEP LAYER/LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND
NEAR-SURFACE BUOYANCY WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED TORNADO AND/OR WIND
DAMAGE POTENTIAL.
MAINLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...THE PRIMARY TORNADO THREAT WILL
LIKELY BE QUASI-FOCUSED NEAR THE NORTHWARD-SHIFTING WARM FRONT AND
THE IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT WARM SECTOR. THIS IS WHERE LOW LEVEL SRH
WILL LIKELY BE MAXIMIZED...AND INCLUDES THE EASTERN HALVES OF VA/MD
AND CHESAPEAKE BAY VICINITY INTO SOUTHERN PA AND PERHAPS DE/SOUTHERN
NJ. WIND DAMAGE WILL OTHERWISE BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION...AS
MODERATE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY AND ADEQUATELY STRONG AND
SEMI-UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES /ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE WARM
FRONT/ WILL YIELD BANDS OF NORTHWARD-MOVING STRONG/SEVERE STORMS
WITH POSSIBLE SMALL SCALE BOWS/WIND DAMAGE.
..GUYER/HURLBUT.. 09/07/2011
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