SWODY2
SPC AC 070542
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1242 AM CDT WED SEP 07 2011
VALID 081200Z - 091200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE OH VALLEY THURSDAY WILL RETROGRADE
SLOWLY WWD REACHING THE MID-MS VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT. TO THE EAST OF
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW...MODEL FORECASTS INITIATE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON ALONG A WELL-DEFINED MOIST AXIS. MODEL FORECASTS
ARE IN DISAGREEMENT CONCERNING HOW MUCH DESTABILIZATION WILL TAKE
PLACE THURSDAY ALONG THE MOIST AXIS WITH THE GFS BEING A MORE
AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION. GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS THURSDAY AT 21Z ALONG
THE MOIST AXIS SHOW MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG WITH 20 TO 25 KT OF DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WHICH COULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE
THREAT IF THE FORECAST INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED. HOWEVER...DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AND LAPSE RATES SHOULD REMAIN ON THE WEAK SIDE ACROSS
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND THIS WILL LIKELY BE A LIMITING FACTOR
FOR A SEVERE THREAT. ATTM...WILL NOT ADD A 5 PERCENT SEVERE
PROBABILITY. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CONUS...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS NOT ANTICIPATED THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT.
..BROYLES.. 09/07/2011
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