SWODY1
SPC AC 141620
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1120 AM CDT WED SEP 14 2011
VALID 141630Z - 151200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...NORTHEAST STATES...
CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK...WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE IN
THIS UPDATE. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND
MODERATE WESTERLY MID LEVEL WINDS WILL POSE SOME RISK OF GUSTY WINDS
AND HAIL IN THE STRONGEST STORMS...BUT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS
LOW.
...MID/LOWER MS VALLEY...
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED PRECIPITATION IS ONGOING THIS
MORNING AHEAD OF A WELL-DEFINED COMMA-CLOUD OVER SOUTHWEST MO.
ENHANCED LOW/MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS IN VICINITY OF THE FEATURE WOULD
SUGGEST A RISK OF ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS LATER TODAY OVER PARTS OF
AR/WEST TN/NORTHERN MS. HOWEVER...EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER WILL
GREATLY LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION. THEREFORE
WILL MAINTAIN ONLY LOW SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES.
...SOUTHWEST STATES...
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT AS WEAK UPPER LOW MIGRATES SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO FOUR-CORNERS
REGION. RELATIVELY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND STEEP
LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL POSE SOME RISK OF GUSTY WINDS IN
STRONGER STORMS.
..HART/SMITH.. 09/14/2011
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