SWODY2
SPC AC 141702
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1202 PM CDT WED SEP 14 2011
VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
SPLIT UPPER FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SYNOPTIC UPPER
LOW THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE ERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. CUTOFF
UPPER LOW OVER THE SWRN STATES IS FORECAST TO DEAMPLIFY AND WEAKEN
AS IT EJECTS EWD IN RESPONSE TO AN UPSTREAM TROUGH APPROACHING THE
WRN U.S. COAST. A LARGE CP HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD SEWD THROUGH
MUCH OF THE ERN TWO THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY. COLD FRONT DEMARCATING
THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS AIRMASS WILL EXTEND FROM THE NERN STATES
SWWD TO ALONG THE WRN GULF COASTAL AREA INTO S-CNTRL AND SWRN TX
EARLY THURSDAY...CONTINUING SEWD DURING THE DAY. SWRN PORTION OF
THIS BOUNDARY WILL STALL ACROSS SRN TX.
...SWRN US THROUGH SRN HIGH PLAINS...
SWLY FLOW ALOFT ABOVE A POST FRONTAL COLD AIR DAMMING REGIME WITH
ELY UPSLOPE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH SWD BUILDING SURFACE RIDGE WILL
MAINTAIN CLOUDS AND RAIN OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS DURING THE DAY.
ALONG AND WEST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM CNTRL NM THROUGH SRN AZ
DIABATIC WARMING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST MARGINAL INSTABILITY
WHERE 25-35 KT BULK SHEAR WILL PERSIST IN ASSOCIATION WITH UPPER
TROUGH. STORMS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
FROM SERN AZ THROUGH CNTRL NM. SHEAR/INSTABILITY PARAMETER SPACE MAY
BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR A THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND
HAIL...BUT OVERALL THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO MARGINAL FOR
MORE THAN 5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES.
...COASTAL MID ATLANTIC AND NERN STATES...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG SEWD ADVANCING COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC AND NERN STATES. WEAK INSTABILITY AND
TENDENCY FOR STRONGER FLOW ALOFT AND VERTICAL SHEAR TO REMAIN POST
FRONTAL SUGGEST ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED.
..DIAL.. 09/14/2011
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