SWODY3
SPC AC 040708
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0208 AM CDT SUN SEP 04 2011
VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL SYSTEM LEE ARE FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY NEWD
ACROSS THE ERN GULF COAST STATES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. TO THE
EAST OF THE SYSTEM...MODEL FORECASTS SHOW A VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN
PLACE FROM FLORIDA NWD INTO THE CAROLINAS WHERE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING TUESDAY MORNING. THE GFS
AND ECMWF SEEM HAVE THE MOST RELIABLE SOLUTIONS SHOWING A WARM FRONT
LIKE FEATURE EXTENDING EWD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS TUESDAY ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY SHOW
SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S F...REASONABLY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND 30 TO 40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD
BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT IF THE SCENARIO PANS OUT
SOMEWHAT CLOSE TO MODEL FORECASTS. HAVE INTRODUCED A 5 PERCENT
SEVERE PROBABILITY IN THE CAROLINAS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.
..BROYLES.. 09/04/2011
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