SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040707
NYZ000-040830-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2115
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0207 AM CDT SUN SEP 04 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...WRN NY
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 040707Z - 040830Z
STORMS MAY POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AS THEY CONTINUE
INTO WRN NY EARLY THIS MORNING. TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A
POSSIBLE WW.
LINE OF STORMS HAS RECENTLY INTENSIFIED ACROSS ERN LAKE ERIE AND IS
MOVING ENEWD AT AROUND 40 KT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE INTO WRN NY
BEFORE 08Z WHERE THE ENVIRONMENT IS CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE
1500-2000 J/KG MUCAPE AND 6-6.5 C/KM 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES ABOVE A
STABLE SURFACE LAYER. THE STORMS WILL REMAIN EMBEDDED WITHIN MODEST
/25-30 KT/ SHEAR...BUT FLOW IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER MAY STRENGTHEN
DURING THE MORNING AS UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE UPPER MS
VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO FORWARD PROPAGATE
ALONG EWD SURGING CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW NEXT FEW HOURS WHICH IS NEARLY
PERPENDICULAR TO FLOW IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER.
..DIAL.. 09/04/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...
LAT...LON 42697912 43447756 43217656 42477657 42107710 42097838
42187942 42697912
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