MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2129

ACUS11 KWNS 050926
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 050926
FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-051100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2129
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0426 AM CDT MON SEP 05 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SERN LA...SERN AND ECNTRL MS...SRN AND
CNTRL AL...WRN GA AND THE FL PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 837...

VALID 050926Z - 051100Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 837 CONTINUES.

TORNADO WATCH 837 WILL NEED TO BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER TORNADO WATCH
BEFORE 11Z THAT WILL EXTEND FARTHER NORTH AND EAST THROUGH CNTRL AND
ERN AL AND POSSIBLY INTO EXTREME SWRN GA...REMAINING VALID THROUGH
AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS LOW LEVEL SHEAR/INSTABILITY PARAMETER SPACE
MAY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES THAN PREVIOUS DAYS ACROSS A
PORTION OF CNTRL AND SRN AL INTO WRN GA. AREA IS BEING CONSIDERED
FOR A POSSIBLE UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION LEE OVER SERN LA IS BECOMING INFLUENCED BY A
HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFYING SEWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
AND OH VALLEYS. AS A RESULT...LEE IS FORECAST TO EJECT IN A
GENERALLY NEWD DIRECTION WHILE GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING TO EXTRA
TROPICAL. SEE LATEST DISCUSSION FROM NHC FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT FROM WRN TN SWWD THROUGH NRN MS
INTO SERN TX. PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM THE CENTER OF LEE
NEWD THROUGH E-CNTRL MS INTO N-CNTRL AL. FARTHER SOUTH A COASTAL
FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTER OF LEE EWD INTO THE FL PANHANDLE. THE
COASTAL FRONT SHOULD LIFT SLOWLY NWD TODAY AS LEE EJECTS
NEWD...ALLOWING MID-UPPER 70S DEWPOINTS TO ADVECT FARTHER INTO THE
WARM SECTOR. MID-UPPER DRY AIR CONTINUES TO BE ENTRAINED INTO THE
CIRCULATION. AS HEATING OF THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
COMMENCES...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR 500-1000 J/KG MUCAPE IN
VICINITY OF THE COASTAL BOUNDARY DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD
BECOME CO-LOCATED WITH 50 KT LLJ AXIS EAST OF THE CYCLONE CENTER.
THIS SUGGESTS GREATEST TORNADO THREAT MAY EVOLVE ACROSS A PORTION OF
SRN AND CNTRL AL THROUGH SWRN AND W-CNTRL GA BY LATE MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON.

..DIAL.. 09/05/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...HUN...MOB...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON 30448466 29828631 30388861 32188951 33338886 33908741
33908632 32998518 30448466

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