SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141916
AZZ000-UTZ000-142045-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2177
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0216 PM CDT WED SEP 14 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AZ...SRN UT
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 141916Z - 142045Z
A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS NRN AZ
AND MAY SPREAD NWD INTO SRN UT THIS AFTERNOON. HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY
WIND WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. A WW ISSUANCE IS NOT EXPECTED DUE
TO THE MARGINAL NATURE OF THE THREATS.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS NRN AZ
ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM NEAR A MAXIMUM OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WHERE
MLCAPE VALUES ARE ESTIMATED IN THE 1200 TO 1800 J/KG RANGE. THE
STORMS ARE BEING SUPPORTED BY LARGE-SCALE ASCENT JUST AHEAD OF THE
AXIS OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ORIENTED FROM SRN NV SWD INTO SERN CA.
CONTINUED DESTABILIZATION AND COLD AIR ALOFT WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH WILL RESULT IN STEEP LAPSE RATES...FAVORABLE FOR HAIL WITH
THE STRONGER CORES. AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN...A THREAT FOR
MARGINALLY SEVERE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY ALSO DEVELOP. THE THREAT
SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED AND CONCENTRATED NEAR THE INSTABILITY MAX IN
NRN AZ.
..BROYLES.. 09/14/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...GJT...FGZ...SLC...VEF...
LAT...LON 36420963 36881029 37181135 37501261 37671342 37341392
37021386 36691362 35911286 35321223 34941108 34891018
35600953 36420963
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