SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141922
PAZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-142015-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2178
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0222 PM CDT WED SEP 14 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WV / MD / SERN PA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 141922Z - 142015Z
STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND ONGOING STORMS OVER WV WILL
PROBABLY INTENSIFY FURTHER THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN THREAT WITH
THESE STORMS WILL BE ISOLD WIND DAMAGE. A SEVERE WW WILL LIKELY NOT
BE NEEDED.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BUILDING CU FIELD OVER THE CNTRL
APPALACHIANS AHEAD OF AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
WRN GREAT LAKES STATES AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION. NEUTRAL TO
WEAK HEIGHT RISES ALOFT HAVE PRECLUDED SUBSTANTIAL TSTM COVERAGE SO
FAR. HOWEVER...STRONG DIABATIC HEATING WITHIN AN APPRECIABLY MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER IS CONTRIBUTING TO 2000-3000 J/KG SBCAPE. ALTHOUGH
THE REGION REMAINS ON THE SERN FRINGE OF STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
FLOW...INCREASING WLY 3 KM FLOW ALREADY EVIDENT AT KBGM AND KPBZ
VAD/S /40 KTS/ WILL OVERSPREAD THE NRN PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA LATER TODAY. COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THE
NET RESULT MAY BE AN ISOLD WIND DAMAGE RISK WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS...ESPECIALLY IF STORMS CAN CONGEAL INTO ONE OR MORE SMALL
CLUSTERS. NONETHELESS...THE ABSENCE OF STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT
NOT DUE UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING SHOULD ACT TO LIMIT STORM
COVERAGE/INTENSITY--THUS NOT WARRANTING A WW.
..SMITH.. 09/14/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...
LAT...LON 38727964 38868038 39757990 40887633 40947567 40517543
40017551 38857732 38667855 38727964
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