SWODY1
SPC AC 100554
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1254 AM CDT MON OCT 10 2011
VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES/NEAR-CONUS
PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC...WHILE A WEAK/RELATIVELY WARM CORE LOW
SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS NORTH FL/SOUTHEAST STATES. A LONGWAVE TROUGH
WILL EXIST OVER THE WESTERN/CENTRAL STATES...WITH SCATTERED/EMBEDDED
TSTMS POSSIBLE NEAR A NORTH-SOUTH FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST/LOWER MO VALLEY AND ARKLATEX. ADDITIONALLY...AN
INLAND-SPREADING EASTERN PACIFIC UPPER JET WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
SPORADIC TSTM POTENTIAL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL/PERHAPS
INTERIOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
...COASTAL SOUTHEAST STATES...
THE CURRENT SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHERN FL IS NOT EXPECTED TO
APPRECIABLY DEEPEN/ORGANIZE WHILE OTHERWISE CONTINUING TO DRIFT
GENERALLY WESTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD...REFERENCE NHC GUIDANCE FOR
ADDITIONAL DISCUSSION. SIMILAR TO THE EARLIER 00Z OBSERVED SOUNDING
FROM JACKSONVILLE FL...A RELATIVELY STRONG WIND FIELD WITHIN THE
LOWEST 2-3 KM WILL REMAIN ON THE EAST-NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THIS
LOW. AT THE SAME TIME...A HIGHER THETA-E AIRMASS WILL GRADUALLY
SPREAD TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST IN PROXIMITY TO A PIVOTING
MARINE/CONFLUENCE BAND TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SURFACE LOW. WHILE
NEAR-SURFACE ROOTED BUOYANCY WILL BE VIRTUALLY NIL FOR MOST INLAND
AREAS...A SUFFICIENT COMBINATION OF LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND INCREASING
MOISTURE/WEAK BUOYANCY WILL LEAD TO SOME POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW SMALL
SUPERCELLS/WIND PRODUCING BANDS NEAR THE COAST. THUS...LOW
PROBABILITIES FOR A TORNADO AND/OR CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED WIND DAMAGE
EXIST MAINLY FOR THE COASTAL AREAS OF NORTHEAST FL AND THE
CAROLINAS/GA.
..GUYER.. 10/10/2011
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