SWODY3
SPC AC 100730
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT MON OCT 10 2011
VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE MS VALLEY WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG
UPPER JET DEVELOPS SEWD THROUGH THE PLAINS. THIS FEATURE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A PACIFIC COLD FRONT THAT WILL EXTEND N-S THROUGH THE
PLAINS WEDNESDAY MORNING...REACHING THE GREAT LAKES AND SERN TX BY
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FARTHER DOWNSTREAM...A NEGATIVE TILT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL DEAMPLIFY AS IT EJECTS NEWD THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC AND
INTO THE NERN STATES.
...MS VALLEY AREA...
MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF PROGRESSIVE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH WILL
REMAIN MODEST WEDNESDAY OWING TO ENELY LOW-LEVEL TRAJECTORIES OVER
THE NRN GULF THAT WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...AREAS OF
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION MAY BE IN PROGRESS OVER A PORTION OF THIS
AREA WITHIN ZONE OF DPVA IN ADVANCE OF PROGRESSIVE TROUGH. THESE
FACTORS SHOULD LIMIT DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL...BUT LOCALLY
STRONGER INSTABILITY COULD DEVELOP WHERE DIABATIC WARMING OCCURS
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVE AREAS. STORMS MAY UNDERGO SOME INCREASE DURING
THE DAY AS THEY DEVELOP EWD THROUGH THE MS VALLEY. GREATER VERTICAL
SHEAR PROFILES /SUFFICIENT FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION/ SHOULD DEVELOP OVER
THE LOWER MS VALLEY WHERE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL EXIST WITHIN
BASE OF TROUGH. OTHERWISE WEAKER SHEAR FARTHER NORTH WILL PROMOTE
MULTICELLS. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED
HAIL DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. LIKELIHOOD OF A MARGINAL
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT PRECLUDES MORE THAT 5% SEVERE
PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE SLIGHT RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS.
..DIAL.. 10/10/2011
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