SWOMCD
SPC MCD 100752
GAZ000-FLZ000-100915-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2244
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0252 AM CDT MON OCT 10 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN FL
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 100752Z - 100915Z
A MARGINAL TORNADO THREAT WILL EXIST ACROSS NRN FL AND CSTL GA EARLY
THIS MORNING. TORNADO WATCH ISSUANCE WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING.
SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A 1005 MB LOW NEAR DAYTON BEACH WITH
STRONG ELY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS NRN FL. A LOW-LEVEL JET IS ANALYZED
FROM WEST TO EAST LOCATED ALONG THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR
CO-LOCATED WITH AN AXIS OF HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ABOVE 2
INCHES WRAPPING AROUND THE NRN PART OF THE SFC LOW. THIS COMBINATION
OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL CREATE AN
ENVIRONMENT SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING STORMS IN NRN FL EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE GREATEST COMBINATION OF LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND ABUNDANT
MOISTURE EXISTS FROM GAINESVILLE FL NWD TO LAKE CITY WHERE A
MARGINAL TORNADO THREAT WILL EXIST. THIS THREAT SHOULD MOVE NWD INTO
CSTL GA AND POSSIBLY WWD TOWARD NORTHWEST FL OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...WITH WW ISSUANCE POSSIBLE.
..BROYLES.. 10/10/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...CHS...TBW...JAX...TAE...
LAT...LON 31798220 30408326 29838336 29578308 29508258 29768193
30348162 31468126 31798220
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