SWOD48
SPC AC 100809
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0309 AM CDT MON OCT 10 2011
VALID 131200Z - 181200Z
...DISCUSSION...
MODEL ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT DAY 4-5 FOLLOWED BY INCREASINGLY
DISPERSIVE SOLUTIONS AMONG THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS AND ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS. DAY 4-5 UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE ERN STATES WHILE A
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WEST. ECMWF IS MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THIS
PATTERN WHILE THE GFS IS LESS SO AND MORE PROGRESSIVE. WITH
EXCEPTION OF DAY 4 WHERE SOME SEVERE THREAT COULD TRANSPIRE OVER THE
OH VALLEY...OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD BE LOW DAYS 5-6 WITH A
TROUGH IN THE EAST AND OFFSHORE FLOW OVER THE GULF. SOME MOISTURE
MAY BEGIN RETURNING THROUGH THE PLAINS AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH BY
DAY 7...BUT DISPERSIVE MODEL SOLUTIONS INCREASE UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING AMPLITUDE OF THE TROUGH AND DEGREE OF MOISTURE RETURN.
..DIAL.. 10/10/2011
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