SWODY2
SPC AC 051718
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1218 PM CDT WED OCT 05 2011
VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...
...HIGH PLAINS...
BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST A SIGNIFICANT SPEED MAX WILL ROUND THE
BASE OF THE WRN U.S. TROUGH ACROSS NM TOWARD THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS
BY 07/00Z. RESULTANT EXIT REGION OF THIS FEATURE WILL INDUCE WEAK
CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE LEE TROUGH OVER NERN CO WHICH WILL THEN LIFT
NWD DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND DEEPEN OVER ERN MT/WRN ND. A
NARROW BAND OF RETURN MOISTURE/MOISTENING WILL OCCUR ALONG WRN
FRINGE OF SFC ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WHERE SFC DEW
POINTS SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S ACROSS THE SLGT RISK REGION FROM
THE TX PANHANDLE...NWD TOWARD THE BLACK HILLS REGION OF SD. LATEST
FORECAST SOUNDINGS EXHIBIT STRONG SFC HEATING NEAR THE LEE
TROUGH/DRY LINE WHICH SHOULD REMOVE INHIBITION ALONG THE WIND SHIFT
BY LATE AFTERNOON. FOR THIS REASON IT APPEARS SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY WILL EXIST FOR ROBUST UPDRAFTS WITHIN A STRONGLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT AFTER 21Z. ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
SOUTH OF I-80 INFLUENCED STRONGLY BY SFC HEATING...WHILE CONVECTION
NEAR THE BLACK HILLS SHOULD EXPERIENCE STRONGER FORCING WITHIN THE
EXIT REGION. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY MODEST MOISTURE RETURN IT APPEARS
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE
THREATS...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT IN
COOLER NRN REGIONS WHERE VERY STRONG SHEAR AND LOWER CLOUD BASES
WILL EXIST.
..DARROW.. 10/05/2011
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