SWODY1
SPC AC 270543
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1143 PM CST MON DEC 26 2011
VALID 271200Z - 281200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA/PORTIONS OF
CAROLINAS TO SOUTHEAST VA...
...SYNOPSIS...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY...AND ANOTHER OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION...WILL QUICKLY COME INTO PHASE
EARLY TODAY AS A BROADER TROUGH EVOLVES OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RACE/TURN MORE NORTHEASTWARD
ALONG THE APPALACHIANS...WHILE THE INITIAL NORTHERNMOST SYSTEM DIGS
SOUTHEASTWARD ON ITS HEELS...CROSSING THE TN VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY
THE SOUTHEAST STATES/CAROLINAS LATE TONIGHT. THIS SCENARIO WILL LEAD
TO CONSEQUENTIAL SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS DURING THE PERIOD...AS A
SURFACE LOW STEADILY DEEPENS/MOVES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE TN/OH
VALLEYS AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS VICINITY THROUGH TONIGHT.
...NORTHWEST FL AND SOUTH/EAST GA TO CAROLINAS/SOUTHERN VA...
SCATTERED STRONG/POTENTIALLY A FEW SEVERE TSTMS WILL BE ONGOING
EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FL PANHANDLE/NORTHWEST FL
AND PERHAPS FAR SOUTHERN GA ALONG/AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD-ADVANCING
COLD FRONT. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER A LOCALLY MORE
STABLE AIRMASS INLAND THIS MORNING...AND ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
REMAIN QUITE ISOLATED/WANE EARLY TODAY IN THESE AREAS.
THE FOCUS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL QUICKLY TURN TO COASTAL AREAS OF
GA/CAROLINAS TODAY AS AN INFLUX OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE OCCURS WITH AID
OF A STRONG /50-65 KT/ SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET AND POTENTIALLY
SECONDARY-TYPE CYCLOGENESIS IN VICINITY OF THE APPALACHIANS/AN
ABATING WEDGE FRONT. DURING THE DAY...IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT LOWER 60S
F SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL MOVE INLAND ACROSS COASTAL GA AND THE
COASTAL/PERHAPS EVEN PIEDMONT PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS.
NONETHELESS...OVERALL INSTABILITY WILL BE TEMPERED BY INTENSE
SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT/NEAR MOST-ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES...WITH MLCAPE
VALUES GENERALLY LIMITED TO 500 J/KG OR LESS /RELATIVELY GREATEST
ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS/.
AS INLAND AIRMASS MODIFICATION/BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING
OCCURS...STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT/ASSOCIATED CYCLOGENESIS
WILL LIKELY AID THE DEVELOPMENT/INTENSIFICATION OF LOW-TOPPED LINE
SEGMENTS/QLCS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS GA/CAROLINAS DURING THE DAY
ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF THE EASTWARD-ACCELERATING COLD FRONT. GIVEN
THIS...THE DEVELOPMENT OF EMBEDDED BOWS/POSSIBLE CIRCULATIONS WOULD
ULTIMATELY LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE/SOME TORNADO RISK
TODAY...EVEN WHERE BUOYANCY WILL BE SCANT ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS/EVENTUALLY SOUTHEAST VA. ADDITIONALLY...AHEAD OF THE
CONVECTIVE LINE/COLD FRONT...LOW-TOPPED/SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN COASTAL AREAS OF THE CAROLINAS...WHERE
ENLARGED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL EXIST /300+ M2 PER S2 0-1 KM SRH/
COINCIDENT WITH A MOISTENING/WEAKLY CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER. ANY SUCH
SUSTAINED STORMS COULD POSE A TORNADO THREAT GIVEN THE HIGH DEGREE
OF SHEAR/SRH...AT LEAST ON AN ISOLATED BASIS.
THE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO END BY EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST AS
THE COLD FRONT STEADILY MOVES OFFSHORE.
...FL PENINSULA...
THE OVERALL INFLUENCE OF THE EASTERN STATES TROUGH WILL INCREASINGLY
DIMINISH WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA. GIVEN THAT
LAPSE RATES/DESTABILIZATION WILL REMAIN MEAGER...NOTHING BEYOND A
MARGINAL/ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT IS ANTICIPATED ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
ADVANCING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA.
..GUYER/ROGERS.. 12/27/2011
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