SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270550
FLZ000-270645-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2395
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1150 PM CST MON DEC 26 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...FL PANHANDLE
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 270550Z - 270645Z
ALTHOUGH A MICROBURST/BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED
OUT...THE SPATIAL EXTENT OF A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT HAS
SUFFICIENTLY DIMINISHED THAT A WW ISSUANCE APPEARS UNLIKELY.
05Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A 1014 MB CYCLONE NEAR GZH WITH A COLD
FRONT ORIENTED SWD...OCCLUDING WITH A WARM FRONT ORIENTED SEWD NEAR
THE WRN FL PANHANDLE COAST. AREAS OF WEAK/BROAD ROTATION NOTED
WITHIN A CLUSTER OF TSTMS FROM SANTA ROSA/OKALOOSA COUNTIES SWD INTO
THE GULF HAVE RECENTLY WEAKENED AS THE OCCLUSION PROCESS
OCCURRED...PINCHING OFF THE INLAND PENETRATION OF THE RICHLY MOIST
GULF AIR MASS. GIVEN DOWNSTREAM STRATIFORM RAIN SHIELD AND ONLY
GRADUAL MODIFICATION OF THE AIR MASS NE OF THE WARM FRONT...IT
APPEARS UNLIKELY THAT SURFACE DEW POINTS AOA MIDDLE 60S WILL RETURN
INLAND DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. DESPITE VERY LARGE LOW-LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS WITH 50 KT S/SWLYS AT 1 KM AGL FROM THE KEVX VWP...ANY
ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT MAY BE CONFINED TO SRN PORTIONS OF
GULF/FRANKLIN COUNTIES.
..GRAMS.. 12/27/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...
LAT...LON 30658698 30808670 30308554 29988463 29868446 29618465
29478483 29528507 29778559 30438699 30658698
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