SWODY1
SPC AC 061255
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0655 AM CST FRI JAN 06 2012
VALID 061300Z - 071200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL UNDERGO SLIGHT AMPLIFICATION DURING THE DAY
ONE PERIOD...LARGELY DUE TO THE INTENSIFICATION OF POLAR BRANCH
SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS OVER THE NRN PLAINS INTO UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
PACIFIC NW. ELSEWHERE...A SUBTROPICAL BRANCH MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
LOW OVER SRN TX/NERN MEXICO WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN WHILE TRANSLATING
EWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND NRN GULF OF MEXICO. IN THE LOW
LEVELS...A COLD FRONT INITIALLY FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO
CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WILL ADVANCE EWD/SEWD...LIKELY STRETCHING FROM THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY BY SATURDAY
MORNING.
...MIDDLE/UPPER TX COAST INTO LOWER MS VALLEY...
A CLUSTER OF ELEVATED TSTMS HAS PERSISTED THIS MORNING JUST OFF THE
MIDDLE TX COAST WITHIN A ZONE OF FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF
ABOVE-MENTIONED MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW. THE 12Z LCH SOUNDING
APPEARS TO BEST CAPTURE THE RETURN OF A MODIFIED CP AIR MASS
INLAND...YIELDING MUCAPE OF AROUND 1000 J/KG. THIS INSTABILITY WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SPORADIC LIGHTNING ACTIVITY INVOF OF THE
UPPER TX AND SWRN LA COASTS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER...
WEAKENING FORCING FOR ASCENT AND THE PRESENCE OF A WARM NOSE
CENTERED AROUND 750 MB /EVIDENT IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS/ CAST
UNCERTAINTY ON TSTM POTENTIAL FARTHER E AND INLAND OVER SRN PARTS OF
LA AND MS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
..MEAD/DEAN.. 01/06/2012
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