DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 060955
SWOD48
SPC AC 060955

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0355 AM CST FRI JAN 06 2012

VALID 091200Z - 141200Z

...DISCUSSION...
LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO RELATIVELY CLOSE
AGREEMENT IN HANDLING PATTERN EVOLUTION OVER THE U.S. IN THE MEDIUM
RANGE. BOTH MODELS DEPICT A STRENGTHENING UPPER LOW OVER TX DAY 4
/MON. JAN. 9/ -- ALONG WITH SOME CORRESPONDING DOWNSTREAM
CYCLOGENESIS SHIFTING NEWD OUT OF THE WRN GULF TOWARD/ONTO THE LA
COAST LATE. THE MODELS THEN SHIFT THE UPPER LOW STEADILY
EWD...REACHING THE LOWER MS VALLEY DAY 5 /TUE. JAN. 10/...AND THEN
CROSSING THE SOUTHEAST U.S. DAY 6 /WED. JAN. 11/ BEFORE MOVING OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST BY EARLY THU. JAN. 12.

AS THE UPPER LOW CROSSES THE GULF COAST REGION DAY 5...AND THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW SHIFTS FROM SRN LA NWD INTO THE MID
SOUTH...THE WIND FIELD AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE/SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. THEREFORE -- BASED ON THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND CHARACTER OF THE FLOW FIELD THROUGH THE LOWER
HALF OF THE TROPOSPHERE...SOME SEVERE THREAT -- INCLUDING AT LEAST
LIMITED TORNADO POTENTIAL -- IS EVIDENT.

HAVING SAID THAT...FAIRLY STRONG SUBSIDENCE/SHORT-WAVE RIDGING IS
EVIDENT IN THE MODELS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO
VERY WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. THIS
COMBINED WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF THE WITH RICHEST GULF MOISTURE
REMAINING CONFINED TO THE COAST SUGGESTS MEAGER INSTABILITY --
PARTICULARLY FARTHER N INTO THE NERN QUADRANT OF THE SURFACE LOW
WHERE MOST FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL EXIST. WHILE THIS DOES
NOT PRECLUDE SHOWERS AND LOCAL THUNDERSTORMS -- ALONG WITH A THREAT
FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES PRIMARILY IN THE DAY 5 PORTION OF THE
PERIOD...ATTM THE OVERALL SETUP DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT A
30%-EQUIVALENT OUTLOOK AREA.

..GOSS.. 01/06/2012

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