SWODY3
SPC AC 300824
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0224 AM CST MON JAN 30 2012
VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS AND
ARKLATEX WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...MODEL FORECASTS
ARE QUITE DIFFERENT ON THE AMPLITUDE AND SPEED OF THE TROUGH. THE
NAM IS THE SLOWEST WITH THE WAVE ALLOWING FOR LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO
RETURN NWD ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL AND EAST TX. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
FASTER WITH THE WAVE AND CONFINE MOISTURE RETURN TO EAST TX AND LA.
THE MODEL SOLUTIONS DO AGREE THAT CONVECTION WILL INITIATE AHEAD OF
THE AXIS OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON THE NRN EDGE OF THE MOIST AXIS
WEDNESDAY EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN NE TX WEDNESDAY EVENING
SUGGEST THAT INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR HAIL WITH MUCAPE
VALUES OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. IF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN INITIATE
ACROSS NE TX WEDNESDAY EVENING...THEN A THREAT FOR HAIL COULD EXIST.
THE MAIN PROBLEM IS THE DIFFERENCE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS. AT THIS
POINT...HAVE TAKEN A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF AND NAM
SOLUTIONS. MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AT THIS POINT AND LATER RUNS WILL
HELP CLARIFY THE POTENTIAL FOR A HAIL SCENARIO.
..BROYLES.. 01/30/2012
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment