DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 300946
SWOD48
SPC AC 300946

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0346 AM CST MON JAN 30 2012

VALID 021200Z - 071200Z

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BEGIN THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE ROCKIES. THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES
NEGATIVELY-TILTED AND AMPLIFIES ON THURSDAY/DAY 4 AND THURSDAY NIGHT
AS A MID-LEVEL JET MOVES INTO THE SRN PLAINS. AT THE SFC...THE
MODELS MOVE A COLD FRONT SEWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT
AND DEVELOPS CONVECTION ALONG THE BOUNDARY LATE. THIS CONVECTION
MOVES QUICKLY SEWD ONTO THE TX COASTAL PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY ON
FRIDAY/DAY 5 WHERE THE MODELS SHOW SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID
60S F. THIS ALONG WITH SUBSTANTIAL VERTICAL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH
THE MID-LEVEL JET COULD BE ENOUGH FOR A SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE SRN
PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE GFS
MOVES THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS EWD INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS
ON SATURDAY/DAY 6 AND ACROSS THE ERN SEABOARD SATURDAY NIGHT. ON THE
CONTRARY...THE ECMWF KEEPS THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM BACK TO THE WEST
OVER THE ROCKIES AND CNTRL PLAINS. FOR THIS REASON...UNCERTAINTY IS
HIGH LATE IN THE WEEK CONCERNING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS.
MORE CERTAINTY EXISTS FOR A SEVERE THREAT IN THE SRN PLAINS AND
LOWER MS VALLEY FRIDAY BUT THE MAGNITUDE OF THE THREAT REMAINS
QUESTIONABLE. WILL NOT INTRODUCE AN ENHANCED SEVERE THREAT ATTM.

..BROYLES.. 01/30/2012

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