SWOD48
SPC AC 270953
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0353 AM CST FRI JAN 27 2012
VALID 301200Z - 041200Z
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BEGIN THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD WITH A ZONAL
FLOW PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS ON MONDAY/DAY 4. THE MODELS
DEVELOP AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ON TUESDAY/DAY 5 IN THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION AND MOVE THE SYSTEM EWD INTO THE GREAT PLAINS ON
WEDNESDAY/DAY 6. AS THIS OCCURS...THE MODELS BRING LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE NWD INTO THE GULF COAST STATES AND DEVELOP A LOW-LEVEL JET
IN THE CNTRL GULF COAST STATES WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP FROM WEDNESDAY/DAY 6 INTO THURSDAY/DAY 7
AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE CNTRL AND ERN GULF COAST STATES
POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE CAROLINAS AS WELL. AT THIS POINT...THE EXACT
TIMING OF THE SYSTEM REMAINS QUESTIONABLE. ALSO...INSTABILITY WILL
PROBABLY BE WEAK ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES LIMITING THE SEVERE
POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...IF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SRN
STATES SLOWER THAN FORECAST AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE HAS MORE TIME TO
MOVE INLAND...THEN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE POSSIBLE IN THE MID
TO LATE WEEK TIMEFRAME. IN SPITE OF A SOMEWHAT LOW POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE STORMS...CAN NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT THE NEED FOR A THREAT AREA
IN LATER OUTLOOKS.
..BROYLES.. 01/27/2012
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