SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270921
MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-271215-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0081
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0321 AM CST FRI JAN 27 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NY...NRN VT/NH...WRN ME
CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN
VALID 270921Z - 271215Z
A MIXTURE OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IS FORECAST TO
TRANSITION TO PRIMARILY FREEZING RAIN BETWEEN 10-12Z OVER PORTIONS
OF NERN NY...NRN VT/NH AND WRN ME. FREEZING RAINFALL RATES MAY
LOCALLY EXCEED 0.03 IN/HR.
LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN THIS MORNING OVER NEW
ENGLAND WITHIN THE EXIT REGION OF INTENSIFYING LLJ. THIS WILL AID IN
MAINTAINING A BROAD PRECIPITATION SHIELD OVER THE REGION...WHICH IS
FORECAST TO EXPAND ACROSS NERN NY INTO NRN VT/NH AND WRN ME THROUGH
15Z. IN ADDITION...MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A WARM NOSE
CENTERED JUST ABOVE 850 MB WILL EXPERIENCE FURTHER WARMING
/TEMPERATURES INCREASING TO NEAR 5C/ ABOVE A SUB-FREEZING NEAR
SURFACE AIRMASS. GIVEN THE SHORT-TERM EVOLUTION OF THE LOW-LEVEL
THERMODYNAMIC STRUCTURE COMBINED WITH INCREASING PRECIPITATION
RATES...MIXED WINTER PRECIPITATION SHOULD TRANSITION TO PRIMARILY
FREEZING RAIN DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT
ICING POSSIBLE. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAY
WARM ABOVE FREEZING OVER NERN NY BY 12-15Z...RESULTING IN A
TRANSITION TO RAIN. HOWEVER...A LONGER DURATION OF FREEZING RAIN MAY
CONTINUE OVER NRN VT/NH AND WRN ME THROUGH MID-MORNING.
..GARNER.. 01/27/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...GYX...BTV...
LAT...LON 45007376 45017160 45557071 45356989 44347037 44197261
44457387 45007376
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