SWODY1
SPC AC 171230
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0630 AM CST FRI FEB 17 2012
VALID 171300Z - 181200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTH TX...
...TX...
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE UPPER LOW
CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO TRACK
EASTWARD AND INTO TX THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF THE LOW...SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL WINDS ARE DRAWING AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS FROM THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO TX. NORTHWARD RETURN OF SURFACE
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED BY A WARM FRONT ACROSS SOUTH
TX. HOWEVER...WARM/MOIST ADVECTION ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL HELP
DESTABILIZE THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS AS FAR NORTH AS CENTRAL TX BY
EARLY SAT MORNING.
PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD OVER SOUTH AND CENTRAL TX.
HOWEVER...THE IT APPEARS THE BULK OF CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED
SEVERE THREAT WILL BE AFTER DARK AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES AND LOW
LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
ENHANCE WARM/MOIST ADVECTION AND LIFT OVER MUCH OF TX. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER
VERTICAL SHEAR FOR CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION. BOW/LEWP STRUCTURES
APPEAR TO BE THE MOST LIKELY STORM MODE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL
IN THE STRONGER CELLS...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH TX WHERE SURFACE-BASED
PARCELS ARE MOST LIKELY.
..HART/MOSIER/ROGERS.. 02/17/2012
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