SWOD48
SPC AC 170849
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0249 AM CST FRI FEB 17 2012
VALID 201200Z - 251200Z
...DISCUSSION...
SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS SIMILAR AMONG MODEL SOLUTIONS THROUGH AT
LEAST DAY 5. CONSENSUS IS THAT A PROGRESSIVE MODERATELY AMPLIFIED
REGIME WILL PERSIST INTO DAY 4 AS THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF TROUGHS
ADVANCE FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE MID-UPPER MS VALLEYS. LEAD TROUGH
WILL DEAMPLIFY AS IT EJECTS NEWD THROUGH OH VALLEY AND NERN U.S. DAY
5 IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER IMPULSE DROPPING INTO THE CNTRL ROCKIES AND
SRN PLAINS. WITH A MEAN TROUGH BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER THE ERN
HALF OF THE U.S. BY DAY 5...OVERALL PATTERN WILL NOT FAVOR A
SIGNIFICANT NWD RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE.
MONDAY...INTRUSION OF CP AIR INTO THE GULF ON SUNDAY WILL MAINTAIN
STABLE CONDITIONS INLAND THROUGH MONDAY.
TUESDAY...PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR WILL BEGIN RETURNING INTO S TX
AND SRN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS VEER
TO SLY IN WAKE OF RETREATING SFC RIDGE. HOWEVER...THE LLJ IS
FORECAST OVER THE TN AND OH VALLEY WITHIN UPPER JET EXIT REGION.
WEAKER LOW LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED FROM TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY
WHICH SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL QUALITY AND NWD EXTENT OF MOISTURE RETURN
AS WELL AS SIZE OF LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS. A FEW STORMS MAY FORM
WITHIN DEVELOPING WARM ADVECTION REGIME ALONG THE WRN AND CNTRL GULF
COASTAL AREAS...BUT ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN MARGINAL.
WEDNESDAY...SOME SEVERE THREAT COULD DEVELOP INTO PARTS OF NRN FL IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A SRN STREAM IMPULSE...BUT INCREASING MODEL
DIFFERENCES LOWER OVERALL CONFIDENCE.
..DIAL.. 02/17/2012
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