SWODY3
SPC AC 170758
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0158 AM CST FRI FEB 17 2012
VALID 191200Z - 201200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NRN FL THROUGH SERN GA AND
ERN SC...
...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE CNTRL GULF
COAST STATES EARLY SUNDAY WILL MOVE OFF THE SERN ATLANTIC SEABOARD
BY EVENING. SURFACE LOW INITIALLY OVER NRN AL SUNDAY MORNING WILL
LIKELY WEAKEN AS IT DEVELOPS TOWARD THE MORE STABLE REGIME ACROSS
THE SRN APPALACHIANS...WHILE SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS COMMENCES NEAR
COASTAL NC AS UPPER DIVERGENCE ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
BEGINS TO OVERTAKE THE COASTAL BOUNDARY. COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWD
FROM THE INITIAL LOW WILL ADVANCE THROUGH REMAINDER OF GA...SRN SC
AND FL WHILE A WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD THROUGH SC AND INTO SERN NC.
...NRN FL THROUGH COASTAL GA AND SC...
STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR ALONG WARM
CONVEYOR BELT FROM PORTIONS OF GA...SC AND NRN FL WHERE A STRONG LLJ
WILL HAVE ADVECTED MID-UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS INLAND. THIS ENVIRONMENT
WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY LARGE 0-1 KM HODOGRAPHS BUT WEAK
INSTABILITY WHICH MAY SERVE AS A POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTOR FOR A
MORE ROBUST SEVERE THREAT. NEVERTHELESS...WITH STRONG EFFECTIVE
SHEAR AND 50-60 KT FLOW JUST OFF THE SURFACE...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST
FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS STORMS DEVELOP EWD. SOME THREAT
WILL ALSO EXIST FOR STRONG CONVECTION IN WAKE OF INITIAL ACTIVITY
WITHIN DRY SLOT REGION ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WHERE AT
LEAST MODEST DIABATIC HEATING AND SOMEWHAT GREATER LAPSE RATES MAY
RESULT IN A SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT.
HOWEVER...VEERING PRE-FRONTAL WINDS DUE TO SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS
ALONG NC COAST MAY TEND TO LIMIT FRONTAL CONVERGENCE. ANY SEVERE
THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH BY MID AFTERNOON.
..DIAL.. 02/17/2012
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