SWODY2
SPC AC 170617
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1217 AM CST FRI FEB 17 2012
VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM EXTREME SERN TX THROUGH
SRN PORTIONS OF THE GULF COASTAL STATES...
...SYNOPSIS...
A PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW REGIME WILL CHARACTERIZE THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN SATURDAY. PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST IS CUTOFF UPPER LOW
LOCATED OVER THE NRN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AS OF LATE THURSDAY EVENING.
THIS FEATURE WILL ACCELERATE EWD IN RESPONSE TO AN UPSTREAM WAVE
APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NW. MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THIS TROUGH AXIS
WILL BE LOCATED FROM CNTRL TX INTO NERN MEXICO EARLY SATURDAY AND
WILL SUBSEQUENTLY ADVANCE INTO THE CNTRL GULF COAST STATES SATURDAY
NIGHT. CYCLOGENESIS WILL COMMENCE OVER SERN TX SATURDAY MORNING IN
VICINITY OF BAROCLINIC ZONE AND WITHIN DIVERGENT EXIT REGION OF
UPPER JET ROUNDING BASE OF THE TROUGH. THIS LOW WILL LIKELY DEEPEN
AS IT DEVELOPS NEWD INTO THE SERN STATES...REACHING AL OR GA LATE IN
THE PERIOD.
...GULF COASTAL STATES...
OBSERVATIONAL DATA INDICATE A RESERVOIR OF UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS OVER
THE CNTRL GULF SOUTH OF A QUASISTATIONARY FRONT. RETREATING HIGH
PRESSURE AND STRENGTHENING LLJ ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING CYCLONE
SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO INLAND ADVANCE OF THE FRONT INTO SRN PORTIONS
OF THE GULF COAST STATES. HOWEVER...ISENTROPIC ASCENT NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND RAIN EARLY
IN THE PERIOD FROM ERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY WHICH COULD
POTENTIALLY LIMIT BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION AND SLOW THE NWD
PROGRESS OF THE FRONT. NEVERTHELESS...AT LEAST WEAK INSTABILITY WITH
300-500 J/KG SBCAPE SHOULD DEVELOP INLAND DUE PRIMARILY TO NWD
ADVECTION OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS.
STORMS MAY INCREASE IN INTENSITY ALONG WARM CONVEYOR BELT AND
PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE BANDS INITIALLY ACROSS SERN TX COASTAL AREA
WHERE WIND FIELDS AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL STRENGTHEN WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH. ACTIVITY WILL SUBSEQUENTLY DEVELOP
THROUGH THE GULF COASTAL STATES WARM SECTOR DURING THE DAY AND
OVERNIGHT WHERE MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
POTENTIAL FOR NEAR SURFACE BASED CONVECTION. STRONG EFFECTIVE DEEP
SHEAR AND LARGE HODOGRAPHS ACCOMPANYING THE STRENGTHENING LLJ WILL
PROMOTE A RISK OF LEWP/BOWS AND EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS. DAMAGING WIND
AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITHIN THE EXPECTED
HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENT.
..DIAL.. 02/17/2012
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