SWODY2
SPC AC 180625
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1225 AM CST SAT FEB 18 2012
VALID 191200Z - 201200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF ERN SC...SRN
GA THROUGH NRN AND CNTRL FL...
...SYNOPSIS...
SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM WRN TX THROUGH NWRN
MEXICO AS OF LATE FRIDAY EVENING WILL ADVANCE TO THE CNTRL GULF
COAST STATES EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF THE SERN ATLANTIC
SEABOARD BY EVENING. SURFACE LOW INITIALLY OVER CNTRL AL SUNDAY
MORNING WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AS IT DEVELOPS TOWARD THE MORE STABLE
REGIME ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIANS...WHILE SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS
COMMENCES NEAR THE SC/NC COAST AS UPPER DIVERGENCE ACCOMPANYING THE
TROUGH BEGINS TO OVERTAKE THE BAROCLINIC ZONE LOCATED OVER THE GULF
STREAM. COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWD FROM THE INITIAL LOW WILL ADVANCE
THROUGH REMAINDER OF GA...SRN SC AND FL WHILE A WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD
INTO THE NRN GULF STREAM AS THE CYCLONE DEEPENS OFF THE NC COAST.
...NRN FL THROUGH COASTAL GA AND SC...
STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR ALONG WARM
CONVEYOR BELT FROM PORTIONS OF SRN GA...SC AND NRN FL SUNDAY WHERE A
STRONG LLJ WILL HAVE ADVECTED MID 60S DEWPOINTS INLAND. THIS
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY LARGE 0-1 KM HODOGRAPHS AND
STRONG CLOUD LAYER SHEAR BUT WITH GENERALLY WEAK INSTABILITY WHICH
MAY SERVE AS A LIMITING FACTOR FOR A MORE ROBUST SEVERE EVENT.
NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN THE FAVORABLE KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT AND 50-60
KT FLOW WITHIN 1 KM OF THE SURFACE...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW
STORMS TO PRODUCE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO
OR TWO AS THEY DEVELOP EWD. A MODEST THREAT WILL ALSO EXIST FOR
STRONG CONVECTION IN WAKE OF INITIAL ACTIVITY WITHIN DRY SLOT REGION
ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WHERE AT LEAST MODEST DIABATIC
HEATING AND SOMEWHAT GREATER LAPSE RATES MAY RESULT IN A SLIGHTLY
MORE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT.
HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS AND GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF DIABATIC
WARMING SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO GREATER INSTABILITY TOWARD CNTRL FL
WHERE MLCAPE COULD APPROACH 1000 J/KG. CYCLOGENESIS OFF NC COAST
WILL RESULT IN VEERING PRE-FRONTAL WINDS WHICH ALONG WITH LIMITED
DEEP FORCING FOR ASCENT MAY RESULT TO A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH SWD EXTENT INTO FL AS MID LEVEL DRY SLOT
ADVECTS EWD. HOWEVER...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL POSE A SEVERE
RISK GIVEN STRENGTH OF DEEP LAYER FLOW/SHEAR. SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
DIMINISH BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
..DIAL.. 02/18/2012
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