SWODY3
SPC AC 180733
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0133 AM CST SAT FEB 18 2012
VALID 201200Z - 211200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE AND MODERATELY AMPLIFIED SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL PREVAIL
MONDAY WITH LOOSE PHASING BETWEEN SRN AND NRN STREAMS. CONSENSUS
AMONG GFS AND ECMWF IS THAT ANOTHER IN SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY ON THE HEELS OF IMPULSE NOW OVER NRN MEXICO AS
IT EXITS THE ERN SEABOARD BY EARLY MONDAY. THE UPSTREAM TROUGH WILL
LIKELY MOVE THROUGH THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS MONDAY BEFORE EJECTING INTO
THE MID MS AND OH VALLEYS OVERNIGHT. PREFER SPECTRAL MODELS OVER THE
MUCH SLOWER NAM SOLUTIONS.
...ERN OK AND ERN KS THROUGH THE LOWER-MID MS VALLEY...
GIVEN LIKELY INTRUSION OF CP AIR INTO THE GULF SUNDAY AND THE SHORT
WAVELENGTH BETWEEN THE TROUGH EXITING THE ERN SEABOARD AND UPSTREAM
WAVE THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS ON MONDAY...INSUFFICIENT TIME
WILL EXIST FOR SIGNIFICANT RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
STRENGTHENING LLJ ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING LEE LOW WILL RESULT IN
40S DEWPOINTS ADVECTING NWD THROUGH PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR BENEATH
STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER TROUGH. GIVEN
THE MEAGER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...MUCAPE WILL REMAIN AOB 300 J/KG.
SHALLOW CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP WITHIN ZONE OF FRONTAL CONVERGENCE
AND UPPER DIVERGENCE WITHIN PROGRESSIVE UPPER JET EXIT REGION FROM
ERN OK AND KS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
DESPITE A FAVORABLE KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT...SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL
REMAIN LOW DUE TO SCANT INSTABILITY.
..DIAL.. 02/18/2012
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