SWODY1
SPC AC 111248
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0748 AM CDT SUN MAR 11 2012
VALID 111300Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN AND SE TX NNE INTO THE
OZARKS AND LWR MS VLY...
...SYNOPSIS...
TX PANHANDLE UPR LOW SHOULD ACCELERATE NEWD THIS PERIOD AS CYCLONIC
NRN STREAM JET PERSISTS FROM THE NE PACIFIC ACROSS WA/ORE AND THE
NRN RCKYS INTO SK/MB. THE TX LOW SHOULD REACH CNTRL KS THIS EVE AND
NW IA EARLY MON...AS ASSOCIATED VORT LOBE NOW OVER W TX ASSUMES A
NEGATIVE TILT AND PIVOTS NE INTO WRN MO/NW AR THIS EVE...AND INTO
ERN IA/NRN IL BY 12Z MON.
AT LWR LVLS...A BROAD ZONE OF LOW LVL S TO SWLY FLOW WILL PERSIST
OVER THE PLNS AND MS VLY. WHILE FRONTAL FEATURES WILL REMAIN WEAK
OR NON-EXISTENT...A CONFLUENCE ZONE SEPARATING MODIFIED GULF AIR
FROM AIR ORIGINATING OVER NRN MEXICO AND SW TX WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED FROM SABINE RVR VLY NNE INTO THE WRN OZARKS TODAY. THIS
FEATURE LIKELY WILL SERVE AS THE MAIN FOCUS OF STRONG TO POTENTIALLY
SVR TSTMS THIS PERIOD.
...SE TX/LA NEWD INTO OZARKS TODAY/TNGT...
SHOWERS AND TSTMS SHOULD SLOWLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND STRENGTH
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING FROM E CNTRL TX AND THE MIDDLE
TX GULF CSTL PLN NEWD INTO THE ARKLATEX AS UPR DIVERGENCE/ASCENT
INCREASE AHEAD OF SRN PART OF AFOREMENTIONED VORT LOBE. OTHER
STORMS...LIKELY MORE ELEVATED...SHOULD SIMULTANEOUSLY INCREASE FROM
N TX AND ERN OK INTO SE KS...NW AR...AND SW MO.
CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION AND MODEST MID LVL LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT
DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION ACROSS SLGT RISK AREA TODAY.
NEVERTHELESS...COMBINATION OF INCREASING LOW LVL MOISTURE AND
FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF SFC OR NEAR
SFC-BASED STORMS ALONG SSW-NNE CONFLUENCE ZONE FROM SE TX INTO THE
ARKLATEX LATER THIS MORNING. COUPLED WITH STRONG WIND FIELD AND
HODOGRAPHS THAT WILL EXHIBIT SUBSTANTIAL LOW TO MID LEVEL VEERING
/I.E...40-50 KT SSWLY 850 MB FLOW BENEATH 50-60 KT SW WINDS AT 500
MB/...EXPECT SCTD SUSTAINED STORMS/SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF BOTH
TORNADOES AND DMGG WIND.
WIND PROFILES AND THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SUGGEST THAT THE STORMS
MAY ORGANIZE INTO ONE OR TWO BROKEN BANDS ORIENTED ROUGHLY PARALLEL
TO THE CONFLUENCE AXIS. THESE BANDS SHOULD MOVE/DEVELOP NNE INTO
CNTRL AR AND NW LA BY EVE. WHILE THE GREATEST SVR RISK SHOULD EXIST
BETWEEN MID AFTN AND EARLY TNGT FROM E TX INTO PARTS OF AR AND
LA...A LIMITED SVR RISK MAY CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY MON NEWD INTO
PARTS OF MO...SRN IL...WRN KY...AND WRN TN AS LOW LVL SPEED MAX
STRENGTHENS AND MOVES NEWD WITH STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT.
..CORFIDI/SMITH.. 03/11/2012
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