MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0240

ACUS11 KWNS 111256
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111256
LAZ000-TXZ000-111530-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0240
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0756 AM CDT SUN MAR 11 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL TX TO FAR WESTERN LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 111256Z - 111530Z

AN ISOLATED TORNADO/DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL MAY DEVELOP/GRADUALLY
INCREASE THIS MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST INTO EAST-CENTRAL
TX/EVENTUALLY FAR WESTERN LA. INITIAL THINKING IS THAT A WATCH COULD
BE NEEDED AS EARLY AS MID/LATE MORNING ACROSS THE REGION.

PER LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS...A MODIFIED GULF AIRMASS WITH
MIDDLE/UPPER 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SPREAD
NORTHWARD ALONG THE UPPER TX COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH ELEVATED
TSTMS ONGOING EARLY DAY ACROSS THE TX HILL COUNTRY...THE GRAZING
SOUTHERN INFLUENCE OF A CLOSED CYCLONE CENTERED/MOVING NORTHEASTWARD
OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL LIKELY INTERACT WITH THIS
INCREASINGLY MOIST/POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
INTO EAST-CENTRAL TX/FAR WESTERN LA TODAY. AS SUCH...SURFACE BASED
TSTMS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME MORE PREVALENT WITHIN THE WARM/MOIST
SECTOR AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING SURFACE TROUGH/WEAK FRONT...WITH
INCIPIENT SIGNS OF WEAK SUPERCELL STRUCTURES/INCREASING CG LIGHTNING
ALREADY NOTED NORTH OF HOUSTON VICINITY. ACCORDINGLY...THE LATEST
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE...INCLUDING CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS SUCH AS
THE 00Z WRF-NMM AND SPC EXPERIMENTAL SSEO...IMPLY THAT STORMS SHOULD
GRADUALLY DEVELOP/MATURE INTO LATE MORNING/MIDDAY WITHIN A
PERSISTENT SSW-NNE CORRIDOR OF INCREASING MOIST/CONFLUENT LOW-LEVEL
FLOW. GIVEN THIS ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION/THERMODYNAMIC TRENDS...SHEAR
PROFILES COINCIDENT WITH THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A MODERATELY STRONG
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED/EMBEDDED
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF A FEW TORNADOES ALONG WITH DAMAGING
WINDS/SOME HAIL.

..GUYER.. 03/11/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...

LAT...LON 28849549 29729606 30889583 31629494 31499363 30699348
29689415 28849549

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