SWODY2
SPC AC 110619
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1219 AM CST SUN MAR 11 2012
VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
CORRECTED FOR THUNDER GRAPHIC
...GREAT LAKES...
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS QUITE CONSISTENT REGARDING THE INTENSE
MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS THAT WILL OVERSPREAD THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY
REGION INTO THE GREAT LAKES WHERE 12HR VALUES WILL APPROACH 150-180M
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THE RESPONSIBLE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL EXTEND
FROM THE U.P. OF MI...SWD INTO EXTREME NRN IND BY 13/00Z WITH A
FOCUSED SPEED MAX ORIENTED SW-NE ACROSS LOWER MI. NAM IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE MODEL REGARDING DESTABILIZATION NORTH OF THE
JET...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE EXPECTED SFC HEATING AHEAD OF WIND SHIFT
THAT WILL BE JUXTAPOSED BENEATH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. IF BOUNDARY
LAYER CAN HEAT AS SUGGESTED BY THE NAM WITH READINGS INTO THE
LOW-MID 60S THEN STEEP LAPSE RATES COULD SUPPORT A FEW ROBUST
UPDRAFTS WITHIN AN OTHERWISE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THE LOW
PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE TSTMS IS PREDICATED ON STRONG SFC HEATING
PROVIDING ENOUGH BUOYANCY FOR SFC-BASED ACTIVITY PRIMARILY BETWEEN
THE HOURS OF 20-00Z.
...KY SWWD INTO NRN MS/AL...
IN THE WAKE OF EARLY MORNING WARM CONVEYOR PRECIPITATION LARGE SCALE
FORCING WILL BECOME WEAK TO POSSIBLY SUBSIDENT ACROSS THE LOWER OH
VALLEY INTO THE CNTRL GULF STATES. WITH LLJ EXPECTED TO LIFT WELL
NORTH OF THIS REGION AND MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES ANTICIPATED TO
OVERSPREAD MIDDLE TN BY LATE AFTERNOON DEEP CONVECTION MAY STRUGGLE
TO DEVELOP. SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT REGARDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THIS REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. FORECAST LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BE THAT STEEP BUT A CORRIDOR OF HIGHER BUOYANCY WILL EXIST ACROSS
THIS REGION WHERE SHEAR PROFILES WOULD OTHERWISE PROVE CAPABLE OF
SUPPORTING AT LEAST STRONG MULTI-CELL UPDRAFTS. GIVEN THE LACK OF
SUPPORT AND NO CONVINCING REASON FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS WILL
MAINTAIN ONLY A 5% PROBABILITY FOR DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL IF STORMS
MANAGE TO DEVELOP DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY.
..DARROW.. 03/11/2012
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