SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211719
MSZ000-LAZ000-211845-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0317
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1219 PM CDT WED MAR 21 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR EASTERN LA TO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MS
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 97...
VALID 211719Z - 211845Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 97 CONTINUES.
TORNADO WATCH 97 CONTINUES UNTIL 23Z...WITH CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR
TORNADOES AND WIND DAMAGE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST
LA/SOUTHERN MS.
GENERAL NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...WITH
EMBEDDED BOWS/SUPERCELLS...CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY PROGRESS
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHWEST/WEST-CENTRAL MS AND SOUTHEAST LA
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD BREAKS/STRONGER HEATING ARE EVIDENT
ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST LA INTO SOUTHEAST MS...BUT THE AIRMASS DOES
CONTINUE TO OTHERWISE WARM/MOISTEN INTO CENTRAL MS PER SURFACE
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. THE JACKSON MS AND NEW ORLEANS WSR-88D VWPS
ARE BOTH INDICATIVE OF RELATIVELY STRONG/CURVING HODOGRAPHS...WITH
STRONG NEAR-SURFACE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BENEATH NEARLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL BUT STRONG DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW ABOVE 1 KM. WITH A
SURFACE PRESSURE RISE/FALL COUPLET EVIDENT...THIS CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT AN ORGANIZED QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE WITH EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS/BOWING STRUCTURES AS THE QLCS OTHERWISE SPREADS
EAST-NORTHEAST. THE MOST AGGRESSIVE FORWARD PROPAGATION/PERHAPS A
CORRIDOR OF SEMI-FOCUSED SEVERE MAY CONTINUE TO OCCUR NEAR THE LA/MS
BORDER VICINITY EAST OF I-55...WHERE THE QLCS IS INTERCEPTING
ADDITIONAL WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS/FEW TSTMS IN VICINITY OF A
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY/INSTABILITY GRADIENT. LASTLY...IN THE
WAKE OF THE QLCS...ADDITIONAL TSTMS HAVE INCREASED ABOUT 75-90 MILES
BEHIND THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE LINE. THE MAJORITY OF THIS IS
OCCURRING ATOP A SURFACE STABILIZED COLD POOL...WITH SOME HAIL
POSSIBLE.
..GUYER.. 03/21/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...
LAT...LON 32899084 33199041 32728921 31088851 29178907 29269046
31029015 32499060 32899084
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