MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0318

ACUS11 KWNS 211722
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211722
NCZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-TNZ000-211915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0318
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1222 PM CDT WED MAR 21 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN WV...SWRN AND CNTRL VA...MUCH OF NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 211722Z - 211915Z

STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. THE MAIN
THREAT WILL BE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS. THE
LACK OF STORM ORGANIZATION AND EXPECTED PULSE-TYPE NATURE OF
CONVECTION WILL PRECLUDE THE ISSUANCE OF A WW AT THIS TIME.

CUMULUS WERE DEVELOPING ALONG HIGHER TERRAIN FROM SE WV SWD INTO
NWRN NC WHERE CLEAR SKIES HAVE ALLOWED MAXIMUM SFC HEATING THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. FURTHER E...MORE SPORADIC DEVELOPMENT OF CU WAS
EVIDENT ON LATEST VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY DUE TO EARLY MORNING
CLOUDINESS. HOWEVER...THE AIR MASS ACROSS CNTRL VA AND NC WAS
SHOWING SIGNS OF DESTABILIZATION AS WELL. ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN
SBCAPE VALUES WERE APPROACHING 1000 J/KG AND EXPECT CNTRL PORTIONS
OF THE MCD AREA TO RECOVER QUICKLY WITH ADDITIONAL HEATING. BY
MID-AFTERNOON SBCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG COMBINED WITH MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES APPROACHING 7 DEG C/KM WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS AND WITH
COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT /-14 TO -16 C AT 500 MB PER 12Z
RAOBS/...MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...VERY
WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR /LESS THAN 10-15 KT BULK SHEAR/ AND LITTLE
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR ASCENT WILL LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION AND
STRONG UPDRAFTS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. THEREFORE...SUB-SEVERE HAIL IS
EXPECTED TO BE MORE PREVALENT WITH SHORTER DURATION PERIODS OF NEAR
SEVERE HAIL POSSIBLE.

..LEITMAN.. 03/21/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...ILM...RNK...RLX...GSP...
MRX...

LAT...LON 37358195 37808152 38398095 38698047 38997984 38827934
38447892 37787809 36597727 35597712 35197753 34957791
34637859 34857957 35428106 36138184 37358195

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