MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0380

ACUS11 KWNS 292151
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292150
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-292245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0380
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0450 PM CDT THU MAR 29 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL KS...NWRN OK...FAR NERN TX PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 292150Z - 292245Z

CONVECTIVE INITIATION APPEARS PROBABLE WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS ALONG
A DRYLINE FROM PORTIONS OF CNTRL KS SWWD INTO NWRN OK...PERHAPS
EXTENDING AS FAR S AS THE NERN TX PANHANDLE. THE AREA IS BEING
MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW...WITH PRIMARY THREATS OF LARGE HAIL AND
ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUSTS.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A GROWING TCU FIELD ALONG A NEARLY
STATIONARY DRYLINE...POSITIONED 30 W HUT TO 10 W GAG PER 2100Z SFC
ANALYSIS. ALTHOUGH RUC OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS FIELDS INDICATE MOST OF
THE HIGHLIGHTED AREA MAY STILL BE CAPPED...AMPLE SFC HEATING
/TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER-MID 80S/ ALONG WITH STRONG IMPLIED
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INVOF THE DRYLINE /ESPECIALLY OVER NWRN OK/
SHOULD EVENTUALLY ERODE CINH AND FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ISOLATED-SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. ADDITIONALLY...WEAK LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH NOW ENTERING THE
SRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WILL ALSO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL FAVOR
PRIMARY THREATS OF LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS. LOW/MIDLEVEL FLOW IS
STRONGER OVER PORTIONS OF KS...WEAKENING WITH SWD EXTENT ACROSS NWRN
OK. NONETHELESS...VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT COMBINED WITH MODERATE
POTENTIAL INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND BROKEN LINE
SEGMENTS ACROSS KS...WHILE MULTICELL/OCCASIONAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES
APPEAR MORE PROBABLE ACROSS NWRN OK AND THE FAR NERN TX PANHANDLE.

..ROGERS.. 03/29/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...

LAT...LON 35569994 36349820 38129697 38739674 39199683 39209729
38459805 37439899 36340033 35640040 35569994

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