SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292154
MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-IAZ000-292230-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0381
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0454 PM CDT THU MAR 29 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KS/SERN NEB AND FAR NWRN MO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 292154Z - 292230Z
WW WILL BE NEEDED SOON AND WILL BE COORDINATED WITH AFFECTED WFOS
ACROSS NERN KS...SERN NEB AND FAR NWRN MO.
LATE AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
SERN NEB ALONG THE KS BORDER /INVOF JEFFERSON COUNTY NEB/...WITH A
WARM FRONT EXTENDING ESEWD THROUGH THE VICINITY OF FAR SERN NEB/NERN
KS BORDER TO EAST CENTRAL MO. THE WARM FRONT RESIDES GENERALLY N OF
I-70 IN KS. A WIND SHIFT EXTENDED SSWWD FROM THE SURFACE LOW
THROUGH CENTRAL KS TO NWRN OK. STRONG SURFACE HEATING ACROSS THE
WARM SECTOR HAS RESULTED IN WEAKENING OF THE CAP THAT WAS OBSERVED
ON THE SPECIAL 20Z SOUNDING AT TOP. THUS...THE DECREASE IN SURFACE
BASED INHIBITION HAS RESULTED IN DEEPENING CU ALONG THE KS WIND
SHIFT AND ALONG THE WARM FRONT PER VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE PRESENCE OF MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY /MLCAPE 2000-3000 J
PER KG/ AND 30-35 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR ARE SUPPORTIVE FOR ORGANIZED
STORMS. STORMS THAT FORM AND TRACK EWD ALONG THE WARM FRONT WILL
HAVE A POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE TORNADOES GIVEN EFFECTIVE SRH OF 200-300
M2/S2.
..PETERS.. 03/29/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...
LAT...LON 40069745 40529712 40599572 40539477 39769459 39689476
39519517 39379566 39389652 39599725 40069745
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