SWODY1
SPC AC 220539
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1239 AM CDT SUN APR 22 2012
VALID 221200Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER COASTAL PORTIONS OF NC...
...SYNOPSIS...
SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN AMPLIFIED SUNDAY WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
PERSISTING OVER THE ERN STATES DOWNSTREAM FROM A RIDGE OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL RAPIDLY
DEAMPLIFY AND EJECT NEWD AS NRN STREAM TROUGH AMPLIFIES BEFORE
EVENTUALLY CLOSING OFF OVER THE CNTRL AND SRN APPALACHIANS. A
SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN OVER THE GULF STREAM AND
LIFT NWD ALONG STALLED FRONT INTO THE NC COASTAL AREA AND SERN VA IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE EJECTING BUT DEAMPLIFYING UPPER LOW. A COLD
FRONT WILL SWEEP SEWD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FL PENINSULA.
...NC COAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREA...
A SMALL WARM SECTOR WILL PERSIST OVER ERN NC INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
AREA GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF DEEPENING SFC LOW TRACK. NUMEROUS
STORMS ARE ALREADY INCREASING FROM THE GULF STREAM INTO NC...AND
STORMS WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING THROUGH THIS REGION INTO SUNDAY
WITHIN ZONE OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT. THE
ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIMIT DESTABILIZATION
POTENTIAL WHICH MAY ULTIMATELY SERVE AS A LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE
STORMS. HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL
INCREASE AS THE NRN STREAM TROUGH AMPLIFIES AND AS THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE ERN GULF EJECTS NNEWD. VERTICAL WIND PROFILES WILL BECOME
SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL AND BOWING STRUCTURES SUNDAY MORNING. AT
LEAST A MODEST THREAT WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
A COUPLE OF TORNADOES PRIMARILY ALONG COASTAL PORTIONS OF NC.
...SRN FL...
A FEW STORMS MIGHT BE ONGOING OVER PORTIONS OF SRN FL AT THE START
OF THIS PERIOD WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MARGINAL
INSTABILITY AND UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY SHEAR OF 30-40 KT. A MARGINAL
THREAT MIGHT STILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS DURING THE
EARLY MORNING...BUT THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
BY MID MORNING AS SUBSIDENCE ALOFT SPREADS INTO THIS AREA IN WAKE OF
EJECTING UPPER LOW.
...PACIFIC NW INTO THE NRN ROCKIES...
DIABATIC WARMING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL
PROMOTE MARGINAL INSTABILITY OVER THE PACIFIC NW INTO A PORTION OF
THE NRN ROCKIES WITH INVERTED-V LOW LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES.
DESPITE A CAPPING INVERSION AND PRESENCE OF UPPER RIDGE...AT LEAST
ISOLATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATE IN THE DAY
AND INTO THE EVENING. STRONGER BELT OF WLYS ALONG PERIPHERY OF UPPER
RIDGE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO 45 KT VERTICAL SHEAR. ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP WITHIN THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL HAVE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. HOWEVER...COVERAGE OF STORMS MAY
NOT BE SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT MORE THAN 5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES.
..DIAL/SMITH.. 04/22/2012
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