SWODY2
SPC AC 220556
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1256 AM CDT SUN APR 22 2012
VALID 231200Z - 241200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
AN AMPLIFIED LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CONUS INTO
MONDAY...AS GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED BY A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER MUCH
OF THE EASTERN CONUS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. TIED TO
THE EASTERN STATES TROUGH...AN INLAND MOVING SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST STATES AND A NARROW/ADJACENT WARM SECTOR
COULD RESULT IN A FEW TSTMS MAINLY FOR COASTAL NEW ENGLAND/OFFSHORE
WATERS.
OTHERWISE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE
PREVALENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION ON MONDAY...AND SOME OF THESE COULD EVEN BE
STRONG/SEVERE AS DISCUSSED BELOW.
...PACIFIC NORTHWEST/FAR NORTHERN CA...
UPPER HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO FALL ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY...VIA
THE GRADUAL APPROACH OF A SLOW MOVING CLOSED TROUGH SEVERAL HUNDRED
MILES OFF THE CA COAST IN ADDITION TO AN AMPLIFYING BELT OF NORTHERN
TIER WESTERLIES OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA. FURTHER AIDED BY THE POSSIBLE
APPROACH OF A WEAK IMPULSE CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST OF
BAJA...INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES /GENERALLY BETWEEN 0.65-0.85 INCHES/
SHOULD RESULT IN A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN TSTM
LIKELIHOOD/COVERAGE ON MONDAY. GIVEN RELATIVELY STRONG VERTICAL
SHEAR AND MODEST BUOYANCY /SBCAPE PERHAPS UP TO 1000 J PER
KG/...SOME OF THE TSTMS COULD BE STRONG/POSSIBLY SEVERE ON AN
ISOLATED BASIS MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH HAIL AND/OR WIND
POSSIBLE.
..GUYER.. 04/22/2012
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