MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0580

ACUS11 KWNS 220622
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220621
FLZ000-220715-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0580
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0121 AM CDT SUN APR 22 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN FL PENINSULA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 186...

VALID 220621Z - 220715Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 186 CONTINUES.

THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OF TORNADOES
CONTINUES...MAINLY ALONG AND E OF A LINE FROM POLK TO LEE AND
COLLIER COUNTIES.

AS OF 0605Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED TWO MORE PROMINENT LINE
SEGMENTS...ONE FROM LAKE COUNTY SWWD TO MANATEE AND SARASOTA
COUNTIES...AND ANOTHER FROM WRN GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES TO WRN
COLLIER COUNTY. MOVEMENT OF THESE LINES WAS GENERALLY E AT 20-25
KT. LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED PRESSURE FALLS
ALONG THE E-CNTRL/SERN PENINSULA WHICH APPEARS TO COINCIDE WITH A
ZONE OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL WAA ATTENDANT TO A 50 KT LLJ /PER MLB
VWP/. WHILE THE AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ONLY MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE /I.E. MLCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J PER KG/...THE PRESENCE OF
STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR /REF. MLB VWP/ AND INCREASING FORCING FOR
ASCENT ATTENDANT TO MIDLEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN GOM WILL REMAIN
SUPPORTIVE OF EMBEDDED SUPERCELL AND BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OF TORNADOES.

..MEAD.. 04/22/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...KEY...TBW...JAX...TAE...

LAT...LON 25498196 26188250 26938293 27588326 28098336 28528323
28858347 29238363 29488306 29168261 29038205 29008186
28448189 28468106 28898103 28938014 27417971 26507950
25377976 24947995 24998057 24858130 25138177 25498196

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