SWODY3
SPC AC 210701
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0201 AM CDT SAT APR 21 2012
VALID 231200Z - 241200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
IN GENERAL...MODELS INDICATE THAT WESTERN U.S. UPPER RIDGING AND
EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGHING WILL REMAIN PROMINENT THROUGH THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. BUT...SOME WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE MAY OCCUR...
WITH A SHORT WAVE IMPULSE LIFTING INLAND ACROSS THE SIERRA NEVADA/
WESTERN GREAT BASIN REGION...TO THE WEST OF THE RIDGE AXIS. AND THE
LOW/MID-LEVEL CYCLONE CENTERS WITHIN THE EASTERN TROUGH MAY BECOME
MORE VERTICALLY STACKED ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION ON
MONDAY.
IT DOES NOT APPEAR PROBABLE THAT THE UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR OF THE
OCCLUDING SURFACE CYCLONE WILL ADVECT INLAND ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.
THIS...COUPLED WITH A BROAD AREA OF DRYING WEST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE LOW...IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN LOW TO
NEGLIGIBLE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS MOST AREAS EAST OF THE HIGH
PLAINS.
OTHERWISE...FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE WESTERN IMPULSE COULD
CONTRIBUTE TO SOMEWHAT GREATER STORM COVERAGE EAST OF THE CASCADES
AND NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON MONDAY.
DESTABILIZATION TRENDS WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED IN
LATER OUTLOOKS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. HOWEVER...PROSPECTS FOR A
SUBSTANTIVE INCREASE IN SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL ONLY SEEM A REMOTE
POSSIBILITY AT THE PRESENT TIME.
..KERR.. 04/21/2012
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