DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 210829
SWOD48
SPC AC 210828

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0328 AM CDT SAT APR 21 2012

VALID 241200Z - 291200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT AN UPPER PATTERN SHIFT AWAY FROM
THE GENERAL AMPLIFIED WESTERN U.S. RIDGE/EASTERN U.S. TROUGH IS
POSSIBLE BY THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. BEFORE THIS
OCCURS...SOME GUIDANCE IS AT LEAST SUGGESTIVE OF LOW SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...ASSOCIATED WITH A DIGGING WAVE WITHIN
MODEST NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS/LOWER MISSOURI
VALLEY AND OZARK PLATEAU REGION. HOWEVER...EVAPOTRANSPIRATION MAY
BE THE MAIN CONTRIBUTOR TO LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING BY THAT TIME...AS
SUBSTANTIVE GULF OF MEXICO BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING AND INLAND
RETURN FLOW APPEARS UNLIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.
THIS MAY ALSO BE A LIMITING FACTOR TO SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL ACROSS
THE PLAINS WITH AN OTHERWISE POTENTIALLY INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE
UPPER FLOW PATTERN...AS A LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS INLAND
ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND ROCKIES LATE NEXT WEEK INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEKEND.

..KERR.. 04/21/2012

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