DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 230732
SWODY3
SPC AC 230730

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT MON APR 23 2012

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...MIDWEST/MIDDLE MS VALLEY/OH VALLEY...
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE MAY BE A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTENING INTO DAY 3/WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE REGION GIVEN
CURRENT/SHORT-TERM FLOW TRAJECTORIES VIA THE CENTRAL CONUS
ANTICYCLONE. NONETHELESS...MOISTENING WILL OCCUR NEAR A SHARPENING
WARM FRONT/ADJACENT WARM SECTOR AS A PLUME OF STEEP LAPSE RATES
ALOFT ADVECTS EASTWARD TOWARD THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY/TN VALLEY.
SPECIFIC SCENARIO CONFIDENCE IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH GIVEN
ANTICIPATED NEBULOUS/LOW AMPLITUDE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
BUT AN ASSORTMENT OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS INDICATIVE OF THE
POTENTIAL FOR ONE OR MORE PROGRESSIVE DISTURBANCES ALOFT TO COINCIDE
WITH A RELATIVELY MOIST/POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN VICINITY OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT...AND ALONG/SOUTH OF A
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.
OVERALL SCENARIO APPEARS TO WARRANT LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES FOR AT
LEAST ISOLATED OR CONDITIONAL HAIL/WIND POTENTIAL...PERHAPS EARLY
WEDNESDAY /HAIL/ BUT MORE SO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT ACROSS THE
REGION.

...FAR SOUTHERN CA...
LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED
TROUGH WILL BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE AND APPROACH FAR SOUTHERN
CA/NORTHERN BAJA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS WILL BETTER
EVALUATE ANY NEED FOR LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES GIVEN LINGERING
UNCERTAINTIES...BUT POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL/GUSTY WINDS AND
WATERSPOUTS CANNOT CURRENTLY BE RULED OUT FOR COASTAL FAR SOUTHERN
CA/ADJACENT OFFSHORE AREAS.

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...
HEIGHT FALLS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION AS AN UPPER TROUGH
AMPLIFIES/DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD OFF THE COAST OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
SOME HAIL/GUSTY WIND POTENTIAL MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION
GIVEN INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER/VERTICAL SHEAR...AND SUCH
POTENTIAL WILL BE REEXAMINED IN SHORT TERM CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKS.

..GUYER.. 04/23/2012

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