MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0581

ACUS11 KWNS 230738
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230737
MEZ000-231130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0581
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0237 AM CDT MON APR 23 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN ME

CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN

VALID 230737Z - 231130Z

A CHANGEOVER FROM LIGHT SNOW TO FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR
BETWEEN 08-10Z. PRECIPITATION RATES WILL APPROACH 0.10-0.15 INCH/HR
THROUGH 12-15Z BEFORE A TRANSITION TO RAIN OCCURS.

07Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS PRIMARY CYCLONE OVER NJ WITH AN
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT EXTENDING ENEWD ACROSS LONG ISLAND SOUND...ERN
CT AND E-CNTRL MA. A CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED PRESSURE FALLS WAS
OBSERVED N OF THE WARM FRONT FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EWD INTO SWRN
ME...LIKELY DENOTING STRONG LOW TO MID-TROPOSPHERIC WAA ASSOCIATED
WITH EXIT REGION OF 50+ KT LLJ /PER BOX VWP/.

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN SUGGESTING THAT THE
SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NNWWD INTO THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY THROUGH 12Z WHILE ASSOCIATED WARM CONVEYOR BELT /AND 50-70 KT
SSELY LLJ/ DEVELOPS NWD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. RECENT SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AT MILLINOCKET...HOULTON...AND CARIBOU INDICATE EITHER
SNOW OR LIGHT RAIN WITH BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS CHARACTERIZED BY
TEMPERATURES OF 33-34 F AND DEWPOINTS OF 30-32 F.

EXPECT A CHANGEOVER TO FREEZING RAIN BETWEEN 08-10Z WITH AN INCREASE
IN PRECIPITATION RATES AS THE ENHANCED ZONE OF WAA MENTIONED ABOVE
DEVELOPS NWD ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. FREEZING RAIN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNRISE WITH HOURLY RATES APPROACHING 0.10-0.15
INCH...BEFORE A TRANSITION TO RAIN OCCURS BY LATE MORNING.

..MEAD.. 04/23/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...

LAT...LON 45217097 45907028 46747000 47346928 47396817 47016760
46366768 45836816 45046973 44767079 45217097

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