DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 240732
SWODY3
SPC AC 240730

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT TUE APR 24 2012

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS...

...CO/SOUTHEAST WY FRONT RANGE AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
00Z-BASED MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EXPECTED
NORTHEASTWARD-ADVANCEMENT OF A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST EARLY THURSDAY TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY
THURSDAY EVENING. THIS WILL LEAD TO HIGH PLAINS SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS/MOISTENING...ALTHOUGH IT DOES SEEM LIKELY THAT
ESPECIALLY 00Z NAM/GFS REMAIN A LITTLE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD EXTENT OF NEAR/ABOVE 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

NONETHELESS...SUFFICIENT MOISTENING IN CONJUNCTION WITH UPPER JET
EXIT REGION/AMPLE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE SHOULD
YIELD AT LEAST ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON...INCLUDING SOME SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL. THIS
SEEMS MOST PROBABLE FROM THE NORTHEAST CO/SOUTHEAST WY FRONT RANGE
VICINITY INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. ANTICIPATED STRENGTH OF THE
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ALOFT PROVIDES UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF THE WNW-ESE ORIENTED FRONTAL ZONE
ACROSS KS.

...OH/TN VALLEYS TO MID-ATLANTIC STATES/CAROLINAS...
UNCERTAINTIES FROM THE DAY 2/WEDNESDAY PERIOD CARRYOVER INTO
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY REGARDING THE LIKELIHOOD/EXTENT OF EARLY DAY
PRECIPITATION AND THE EFFECTIVE LOCATION OF THE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. EVEN SO...GIVEN A WESTERLY
MOIST/UNSTABLE FEED IN CONJUNCTION WITH MODERATELY STRONG/CYCLONIC
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...SEVERAL CORRIDORS OF ISOLATED SEVERE
WIND/HAIL MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION ESPECIALLY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

...LOWER MO VALLEY/MIDDLE MS VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT...
CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT TSTMS SHOULD EXPAND INTO THE
REGION/DEVELOP ON THE EDGE OF THE CAP THURSDAY NIGHT AS A LOW LEVEL
JET STRENGTHENS. GIVEN THIS SCENARIO...THE PROXIMITY OF STEEP LAPSE
RATES/RESERVOIR OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY SUGGEST SEVERE HAIL WOULD BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

...SOUTHEAST MT/FAR NORTHEAST WY...
A FEW STRONG TSTMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
ACROSS THE REGION...BUT THE UNCERTAIN DEGREE OF
MOISTENING/DESTABILIZATION PRECLUDES SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THE DAY
3 JUNCTURE.

..GUYER.. 04/24/2012

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.