SWOD48
SPC AC 240900
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0400 AM CDT TUE APR 24 2012
VALID 271200Z - 021200Z
...DISCUSSION...
00Z ECMWF/GEFS/UKMET ARE IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH DEPICTIONS
OF A RELATIVELY AMPLIFIED/SOMEWHAT STAGNANT LARGE SCALE PATTERN THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS DISCUSSED IN
THE DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY WEAKEN/MINOR OVER THE
MIDWEST BY DAY 4/FRIDAY...WITH CYCLONIC/NEBULOUS UPPER FLOW
OTHERWISE PREVALENT FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS
LATE THIS WEEK. NO 30 PERCENT SEVERE AREAS ARE WARRANTED AS NO
PARTICULARLY WIDESPREAD/CONSEQUENTIAL SEVERE RISKS ARE CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED.
NONETHELESS...AT LEAST ISOLATED/POSSIBLE SEVERE RISKS WILL EXIST
INTO THE WEEKEND. FOR DAY 4/FRIDAY...SOME SEVERE TSTMS MAY BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MO VALLEY/MIDDLE MS VALLEY
NEAR A SURFACE FRONT/REMNANT FRONTAL ZONE...WITH POSSIBLE SEVERE
DEVELOPMENT LESS CERTAIN IN THE PRESENCE OF GREATER CAPPING/NEBULOUS
FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD EXTENT ACROSS OK/NORTH
TX IN VICINITY OF A DRYLINE/WEAK FRONT. OTHER STRONG/POSSIBLY SEVERE
TSTMS MIGHT BE POSSIBLE ON DAY 4/FRIDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS IN THE PRESENCE OF LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW/MODERATE VERTICAL
SHEAR. BY DAY 5/SATURDAY...SOME SEVERE TSTMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE SOUTHEASTWARD ADVANCING FRONT ACROSS PORTIONS OF OK/NORTH TX TO
THE ADJACENT ARKLATEX AND MID-SOUTH REGIONS.
..GUYER.. 04/24/2012
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